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Ravikumar, A. P.; Baker, E.; Bates, A.; Nock, D.; Venkataraman, D.; Johnson, T.; Ash, M.; Attari, S. Z.; Bowie, K.; Carley, S.; et al (, Nature Energy)
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Carley, S.; Porter, A.L.; Youtie, J (, Journal of data and information science)Developing useful intelligence on scientific and technological emergence challenges those who would manage R&D portfolios, assess research programs, or manage innovation. Recently, the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition Program has explored means to detect emergence via text analyses. We have been involved in positing conceptual bases for emergence, framing candidate indicators, and devising implementations. We now present a software script to generate a family of Emergence Indicators for a topic of interest. This paper offers some background, then discusses the development of this script through iterative rounds of testing, and then offers example findings. Results point to promising and actionable intelligence for R&D decision-makers.more » « less
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Garner, J.; Carley, S.; Porter, A.L.; Newman, N.C. (, Proceedings of PICMET '17: Technology Management for Interconnected World)Indicators of technological emergence promise valuable intelligence to those determining R&D priorities. We present an implemented algorithm to calculate emergence scores for topical terms from abstract record sets. We offer a family of emergence indicators deriving from those scores. Primary emergence indicators identify “hot topic” terms, then we use those to generate secondary indicators that reflect organizations, countries, or authors especially active at research frontiers in a target domain. We also flag abstract records (papers or patents) rich in emergent technology content, and we score technological fields on relative degree of emergence. We show illustrative results for example topics -- Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Non-Linear Programming, Dye Sensitized Solar Cells, and Big Data.more » « less
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